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Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season
Welcome I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC) September﻿ 16W. NORU Tropical Storm 16W Looks pretty good, but not yet named. 10L. 17:47, September 3, 2011 (UTC) This storm is Noru in my book; it won't be affecting land, though it could become a typhoon as it heads northward out to sea. Ryan1000 18:21, September 3, 2011 (UTC) Expected to affect Russia. 10L. 21:05, September 3, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Noru It's now Noru. Anonymous 2.0 18:49 (UTC+8) It's not going to get past 50 mph. 10L. 15:22, September 4, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Noru It's already dying.10L. 01:58, September 5, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Noru (2nd time) It's back.10L. 15:29, September 5, 2011 (UTC) Whoa, that was a little unexpected. Oh well. It'll probrably go away soon anyways. Ryan1000 01:14, September 6, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Noru (2nd time) Back to a depression.10L. 12:07, September 6, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Noru Gone.10L. 20:31, September 6, 2011 (UTC) 17W.KULAP Tropical Storm Kulap Expect to be a typhoon and make landfall in China.Allanjeffs 13:05, September 7, 2011 (UTC) Expected to affect China.10L. 20:04, September 7, 2011 (UTC) Whoa this one jumped onto us fast. Hopefully this won't be a re-Fanapi or re-Rananim. They can stay the hell away from places like where they hit. Ryan1000 20:23, September 7, 2011 (UTC) Forecast competly changed for JTWC. Expected to hit Korea.10L. 21:24, September 7, 2011 (UTC) That's a ridiculous system. The JMA is predicting downgrading to a TD within 48 hours. -- 11:20, September 8, 2011 (UTC) Makes sense. The wind shear killing it.10L. 12:13, September 8, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Kulap ...and JMA was right. 10L. 20:45, September 8, 2011 (UTC) : DEADAllanjeffs 21:08, September 10, 2011 (UTC) Yep, it's gone. Ryan1000 13:43, September 11, 2011 (UTC) 18W.ROKE Tropical Depression 18W This area of low pressure finally becomes a TD.10Q. 17:59, September 11, 2011 (UTC) In my book, this storm is Roke, but it will be following behind Kulap, just a little further south, currently it's not forecast to become a typhoon. Ryan1000 02:26, September 12, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Roke For peak season the tropics sure are quiet. Not much going on since Katia became a category 4 hurricane...anyways this is now Roke with 35kts winds. Also seems like 4 people have retired last night due to "school work". With the quietness of the tropics right now, I'm not sure if there really is much else to do but school work. Yqt1001 19:30, September 13, 2011 (UTC) Only semi-retired. JTWC not upgrading this.10Q. 20:05, September 13, 2011 (UTC) Just found out that the storm has been subtropical a few days ago.10Q. 04:52, September 17, 2011 (UTC) Eye feature for both storms.10Q. 04:55, September 17, 2011 (UTC) Roke's been getting boring, but it is out there. WPac may be the only basin that will be fun to watch for a while. Ryan1000 02:09, September 19, 2011 (UTC) Well, I know we're all getting bored as of yet, but after Roke took his bizzare, looping path, he's now going to be lifting northeast and passing into Tokyo, possibly as a C1 typhoon over the next several days. However, Tokyo gets hit by, or brushed by, at least one typhoon or tropical storm every 1-2 years. They're probrably going to be ready for Roke if it affects them. Ryan1000 10:52, September 19, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Roke 80mph 1-min winds. Expected to make landfall on Japan as a TS. Yqt1001 18:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC) I remembered I had 2 typhoons in my dream.10Q. 19:50, September 19, 2011 (UTC) Major Typhoon Roke Boom. It came out of nowhere. Still not good for Japan.10Q. 23:09, September 19, 2011 (UTC) :Wow. I must congratulate Roke for becoming a huge storm in 6 hours. Still forecasting a TS landfall for Japan though. It's funny to think that I was thinking, not even 2 hours ago, about how in the world Katia was the last MH in the world and I come back to find that Roke has exploded into one. Yqt1001 00:49, September 20, 2011 (UTC) :Not good for Japan...maybe this could worsen Talas' problems? Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:24, September 20, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Roke (2nd time) Down to a typhoon again. Yqt1001 11:08, September 20, 2011 (UTC) Major Typhoon Roke (2nd time) 130mph 1-min winds now. Yqt1001 14:53, September 20, 2011 (UTC) I am loving this storm.10Q. 19:45, September 20, 2011 (UTC) Whoa, Roke took off overnight. Now it's at 135 mph, but it is expected to pass right into TOKYO as a 110 mph C2. That's not very good... However, as I mentioned earlier, Tokyo gets hit by, or brushed by, at least one TS or typhoon every 1-2 years. Since 2000, numerous storms have passed near, or onto, Tokyo. Last year had Chaba brush them to the south, 2009 had Krovanh miss them a bit to the east, 2008 had Sinlaku to the south, 2007 had Fitow, 2006 had Maria, 2005 had Banyan and Mawar, 2004 had Ma-on, 2002 had Higos, Chataan, and Halong, 2001 had Danas and Pabuk, and 2000 had Kirogi. Many of those storms I mentioned were weak, but sometimes they can get pretty nasty. Ma-on was by far the strongest one(120 mph at landfall), but it still only did 600 million in damage because it was a rather small storm. For Tokyo, that's not much. Heck, Fitow did 1 billion in damage as a C1 when it hit, but it was bigger than Katrina when it hit, so damage was more widespread and storm surge was much higher than it otherwise would be for a storm like him. I hope Roke won't be that strong, or big, when it bears down, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 20:47, September 20, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Roke (3rd time) And now Roke is a category 2 again. No forecasted landfall intensity for Japan now though, the next forecast point has Roke overland as a TS. Also, I'm actually sorta surprised at how much we are tracking the WPac, last year the record breaking typhoon, Megi, barely accumulated more than a header and a few posts where as this little typhoon is already at "Typhoon Roke (3rd time)". Congrats guys, we've shown to the world that we care about basins other than the ATL and EPac. :P Yqt1001 02:56, September 21, 2011 (UTC) : so we will see if Roke is worse than talas because i know that Talas was the worst of japan in the past three decades Allanjeffs 05:44, September 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Roke has made landfall as a 80mph typhoon. Yqt1001 12:03, September 21, 2011 (UTC Tropical Storm Roke (2nd time) And he is fading away... Yqt1001 19:01, September 21, 2011 (UTC) : Roke has killed 4 so far two more are missing and Over 1 million are evacuated11 of the 15 Toyota Plants have been shut down while the storm passesTalas killed 100 people and it was the deadliest Typhoon in more than 30 years mostly due to inland flooding and landslidesAllanjeffs 23:10, September 21, 2011 (UTC) ::Roke is gone. Yqt1001 12:17, September 22, 2011 (UTC) :::Roke did a lot of impact for Japan. Starting with the nuclear reactors. Then 11 Toyota plants. And it striked near Tokyo. Didn't Talas done enough for them?10Q. 00:06, September 23, 2011 (UTC) 19W.SONCA Tropical Storm Sonca Pop. A new TS appeared from nowhere. Expected to be a fish.10Q. 19:54, September 15, 2011 (UTC) The tropics are so quiet...other than moving NW, Sonca is doing absolutely nothing.10Q. 04:54, September 17, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Sonca WTF? I had a dream of having a typhoon soon it the pacific, I've never saw it coming.10Q. 17:39, September 17, 2011 (UTC) Sonca is really small.10Q. 15:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC) :Sonca is a really pretty storm (well was yesterday, I haven't seen any images of it yet today). It's holding up really well though, never thought I would see such a nice typhoon so far north. Yqt1001 12:55, September 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sonca (2nd time) And it's back down to a TS. Yqt1001 11:07, September 20, 2011 (UTC) Now extratropical.10Q. 12:13, September 20, 2011 (UTC) JMA Tropical Depression JMA Tropical Depression This thing is also out there, currently near Taiwan and could become Nesat over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:12, September 15, 2011 (UTC) : Not so fast. That TD is getting asorbed.10Q. 23:22, September 15, 2011 (UTC) Guess the tropics are getting boring now... We may have Ophelia, but it's not a monster storm in my future. Ryan1000 00:06, September 17, 2011 (UTC) 20W.NESAT Tropical Depression 20W Hmm a random TD. Expected to become a major typhoon heading towards the Philippines. Bears watching. Yqt1001 19:20, September 23, 2011 (UTC) : Again, not good for Phillipines.10Q. 19:45, September 23, 2011 (UTC) : ::Also forecast to hit Southern China east of Hong Kong a few days later. -- 16:08, September 24, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nesat TS now. Yqt1001 14:49, September 24, 2011 (UTC) The WPac reaches their peak in October, so we could be getting the warm-up to a big disaster in the Philipines. They see strong storms almost every year, and have the highest number of annual tropical cyclone landfalls worldwide(6-7 on average). The record number of landfalls was 19 from 1993, and only one hit in 1958. Ryan1000 19:09, September 24, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Nesat You know what, there it is.10Q. 02:52, September 25, 2011 (UTC) I have bad feelings for the people in the Phillipines. 10Q. 16:51, September 25, 2011 (UTC) This storm will be heading towards northern Luzon as at least a 140 mph super typhoon, but the area it's heading for is unpopulated and is pretty much a magnet for super typhoon landfalls. Category 4-5 storms hit Luzon pretty much every 1-2 years. 2006 was the worst season for the Philipines in modern years by far. Typhoons Chebi, Cimaron, and Utor hit them as cat. 3 or higher storms, but did relatively little damage. Typhoon Xangsane killed hundreds and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage when it hit. Xangsane was forecast to pass over Manila only as an 80-85 mph typhoon, but it exploded the night before it's landfall into a 145 mph storm, and devastated Manila, the capital of the Philipines. It was described as one of the worst storms in the history of the city because it caught them off guard. Then, less than 3 months later while they were still recovering from Xangsane, Typhoon Durian devastated the islands when it struck on the start of December as a 155 mph storm and it not only killed nearly 1,500 people, but it also caused over 13 billion dollars in damage. Nesat probrably won't be as bad as those storms, but we should still keep our eyes out for him. Ryan1000 18:05, September 25, 2011 (UTC) Major Typhoon Nesat Rapid intensification to category 3 typhoon before landfall. T Numbers are up to high category 4. Rapid intensification on the coast. Yqt1001 20:14, September 26, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Nesat (2nd time) Emerged from Luzon...12 confirmed dead so far. Category 1 strength typhoon. Yqt1001 19:25, September 27, 2011 (UTC) Hong Kong is taking a beating from it. 10Q. 02:03, September 29, 2011 (UTC) 21W.HAITANG Tropical Depression 21W Tropics are really kicking out storms today. Yqt1001 14:49, September 24, 2011 (UTC) : It seems to recurve to the West very soon. That might get bad especially for Upper Thailand. They still suffer from floods stareting with Typhoon Nock-ten back in July. -- 16:07, September 24, 2011 (UTC) :: That's 2 months ago. It's going to be a weak storm.10Q. 16:10, September 24, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Haitang :: Now a TS.10Q. 02:59, September 25, 2011 (UTC) ::: Formed near Vietnam, strike Vietnam.10Q. 02:15, September 26, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Haitang Has weakened. 10Q. 12:16, September 26, 2011 (UTC) :Last advisory issued. Yqt1001 22:25, September 26, 2011 (UTC) 22W.NALGAE Tropical Depression 22W This came out of nowhere. Expected to become a typhoon.10Q. 12:16, September 27, 2011 (UTC) :Expected to hit the Philippines at category 2 strength. Yqt1001 19:32, September 27, 2011 (UTC) ::It'll probrably just follow behind Nesat, but not quite as fierce. Ryan1000 19:58, September 27, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nalgae :::Now NalgaeAllanjeffs 20:51, September 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Still a depression by JTWC.10Q. 21:00, September 27, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon Nalgae :::::After hitting the Philipines, its wind field is really tiny.10Q. 21:02, September 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Typhoon Nalgae now Allanjeffs 03:14, September 29, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance We have some storms and some possible retirement canidates in the WPac. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine: *Aere - 40% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well. However, just because a storm´s PAGASA name becomes retired doesn´t exactly mean it´s JMA name will too. *Songda - 8% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land. *Sarika - 45% - Well, this thing did do 248 million in damage and 29 deaths, so although Sarika was the weakest storm thus far, it was also the most damaging storm thus far with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance. But like Ma-On, China has seen much worse (Chanchu, Saomai, Bilis, Rananim, ect). *Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general. *Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land. *Ma-on - 10% - It only hit as a category one storm, it apparently wasn´t that bad after all. It did do about 27 million in damages and kill 5 people, but Japan has seen much worse than that. *Tokage - 0% - What an epic fail. *Nock-Ten - 65% - It killed a lot of people in the Philipines and Vietnam, but it's not like they haven't seen this before (Xangsane, Angela, Durian, etc.), so I'm going to be conservative and say maybe to Nock-Ten. However, "Juaning" is gone due to the damage and deaths it did in the Philipines. *Muifa - 65% - The latest damage figure is out, and my opinion on Muifa is similar to mine on Sarika; it killed a fair ammount of people and cause somewhat extensive damage, but the areas affected by Muifa have gone through much worse. *Merbok - 0% - Other than becoming a typhoon briefly, what did this thing do? *Nanmadol - 75% - Destruction in the Philipines and Taiwan was quite severe, so this thing is the first storm with a serious chance of retirement. *Talas - 75% - Whoa, I didn't expect to see 59 deaths in Japan from this typhoon. It dropped near-record rainfall in some places and was very devastating too. Overall, Japan has seen worse, and it's not a gurantee, but still, 59 deaths is a big number for Japan, and it has a descent chance of getting the boot. *Noru - 0% - Did I miss something? *Kulap - 0% - It tried. *Roke - ?? - I'll wait until final damage reports come out, since they're only preliminary now. *Sonca - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a few days. *Nesat - ?? - TBA. *Haitang - ?? - TBA. Ryan1000 17:09, September 3, 2011 (UTC) Mine: JMA: ''' Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed. Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage. Sarika - 95% - '''EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all. Haima - 25% - Added on to Sarika, but not much. Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE! Ma-on - 40% - I saw the waves crash on shore (via video) and Ma-on has a good chance. Tokage - 0% - Nothing at all. Nock-ten - 70% - $140 million (of) damages and 55 deaths in Vietnam, China and the Philippines? Likely to be retired this December. Muifa - 50% - Devestated China, Korea, and and Japan! This has a VERY good shot at going. But then, it wasn't Aere or Sarika bad. Merbok - 0% - Okay... what did this do? Nanmadol - 50% - See Ma-on's section Talas - 40% - See Ma-on's section. Noru - 0% - Fishie. Kulap - 0% - Epic FAIL! Roke - TBA - Still active Sonca - TBA - Still active PAGASA: ''' Amang - 0% - What did this do again? (Bebeng already removed) Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section. Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China. Egay - 2% - See Dodong's section. Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies? Goring - 1% - Ditto. Hanna - 0% - And she did nothing (again). Ineng - 2% - Because Japan saw more from this than the Phillipines. Juaning - 95% - P1 billion of damages and 52 deaths? No way, this has a '''very big chance of being retired. Kabayan - 4% - See Dodong's section. Lando - 0% - see Amang, Chedeng, Falcon and Hanna's sections. Mina - 100% - She has been retired. Nonoy - 0% - .This was nothing. Onyok - TBA - Still active Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC) Update: Juaning has been retired. IMO, it had to go because it had both more damage and deaths than Bebeng (Aere) back in May. Hurricane Andrew (444) Update 2: Mina is gone, too. Hurricane Andrew (444) Here's mine: *TD 2- 0% - No brainer. **Amang- 0% - It turned away from the Phillipines. *Aere- 50% - It only did damage in the Phillipines. **Bebeng- Gone *Songda- 0% - Other than reaching STY strength, what did this thing do? **Chedeng- 5% - Not enough damage. *Sarika- 40% - China has seen worse than this. **Dodong- 0% - More damages were reported from China. *Haima- 20% - It did some damage but it didn't do enough. **Egay- 0% - Went above Phillipines. *Meari- 5% - Little damage reported. **Falcon- 0% - See Egay's section. *TD **Goring- 0% - See Falcon's section. *Ma-on- 5% - Japan has seen worse than this. **Ineng- 0% - It was never close. *Tokage- 0% - Fishspinner. **Hanna- 0% - See Amang's section. *Nock-Ten- 70% - Lots of deaths in this storm. **Juaning- Gone. *Muifa- 40% - See Sarika's section. **Kabayan- 0% - See Dodong's section. *TD **Lando- 0% - I love fish. *Merbok- 0% - What did this thing do? *Nanmadol- 80% - It did a lot of damage in Taiwan. **Mina- Gone. *Talas- 75% - I've changed my mind about this storm. *Noru- 0% - What a fail. *Kulap- 0% - See Noru's section. **Nonoy - 0% - I seen storms doing that, and still had a better chance of retirement. *Roke- 75% - Take Talas as an example. **Onyok - 0% - Nope.. *Sonca - 0% - I know what I'm doing. *Nesat - ? **Pedring - ? *Haitang - ? *Nalgae - ? That's for now.10Q. 00:11, September 23, 2011 (UTC) Replacement names No harm in starting this. Does anyone have replacement names for Bebeng and/or Juaning? Here are some: Female J names (Juaning): Janisa, Jardena, June, Jada, Jade, Jeanette, June, Jun, Judit, Judy, Julia Female B names (Bebeng) (continuing HM99's list): Bonnie, Brittany, Bri, Bonny, Bertha, Bebe, Belinda, Belle, Bella, Bebel Female M names (Mina): (continuing Allan's list): Minnie, Machi, Maci-Lei, Macy, Madeira, Maddy, Mab, Madison,Maelianna, Magda, Mai, Maida, Maiko, Mala None of these will likely verify, but honestly, no one really cares about this section anymore. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:35, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :Actually, this was one of my favorites; I guess no-one started this up yet because not that many names have been retired. Anyway, since I'm not sure what gender Bebeng or Juaning are: :*''Bebeng'' (male): :**Bart, Benny, Bobby, Brendan, Billy, Bert, Bernie, Bertie, Barry, Blake, Bruce, Bono (Who knows? There might be U2 fans in PAGASA) --HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :*''Bebeng'' (female): :**Barbie, Becky, Betty, Brenda, Babe, Beverly, Bianca, Brianna :*''Juaning'' (male): :**Jack, Jeff, James, Jordan, Joseph, Josh, Joshua, Joe, Johnny, Jerry, Jim, Johann :--HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) ::I don't know what name may be submitted for Juaning or Bebeng, but in the case of JMA replacements, it will be really tough to guess because replacement names for JMA names don't have to begin with the same letter as the retiree in question. There aren't any reasonable retirement canidates as of now anyways for the JMA. Neither Juaning or Bebeng hit the Philipines as hard as other storms in the past, but given the number of people they killed and the fact the Philipines are much more prepared now, they likely were pretty bad for them anyways, and I won't argue about it. Ryan1000 00:13, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :: ::HurricaneMaker, Bebeng and Juaning are both female names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:20, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :::Replacement for Juaning is Julia. Hurricane Andrew, you got it right! Cyclone10 19:37, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :::Cyclone10, where did you hear that fact? Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:20, August 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Wikipedia. Cyclone10 00:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::Not on season article, but storm article.Cyclone10 00:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::: Mina is alo gone for me replacements melissa maiya misa monica milly Allanjeffs 22:43, September 2, 2011 (UTC) ::::: Allan, Mena is not a good choice because unlike Rita/Rina and Stan/Sean, not only is that name just one letter off, it sounds the same too. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:05, September 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::: ::::: Thanks Andrew is that I was gonna wirte Misa instead of Mena Allanjeffs 03:40, September 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::: ::::: Note/s: The replacement names should be somewhat ''F''ilipino-sounding, and also, there is still no replacement for Juaning. The replacement names will be announced the year that the names would be used again, just like Milenyo and Reming of 2006 - their replacements were announced four years later (Mario and Ruby; 2010; though both of them were not used during that season due to the lack of storms). Anonymous 2.0 15: 00 (UTC+8) September 11, 2011